Deja Vu! The Cubs ride early offense to another win over the Astros.
For the second straight game, the Cubs rode the same strategy to victory over the visiting Astros. That formula was, ambush them with a big inning in the bottom of the first, ride a strong pitching performance and cruise to victory. Well, actually, like any good sequel, the second one was a bit of a pale imitation of the first one. As a result, this one didn’t quite reach “cruise to victory” status. Notwithstanding the track record of the team in the other dugout, this one never felt like it would get away. But it also didn’t feel like kick up your feet and relax either. I’m going to guess that for a good number of Cubs fans, one of the good handful of games from last season that was most irritating was a game in Houston. So we all know that the talent in the other dugout is capable of pulling it together and being extremely dangerous.
Your mileage may vary a bit from mine, but from my perspective, there have been two constants to this season. One is that this team has been plagued by under performance and injuries, particularly to key players. Things like the Justin Steele injury on opening night and the Adbert Alzolay struggles jump off the page. But by my count, seven different Cubs have already spent time on the injured list. It’s not May 1 yet and for the most part, these aren’t minor contributors. I am one of many people who are in and around baseball who will regularly talk about the need for contributions from 35 to 40 players. 36 players have already suited up for the Cubs this year.
I said two constants, didn’t I? I didn’t forget the other one. The other is that the Cubs have been in a position to win just about every game. Definitely not every single game. There have been a few non-competitive games. But they’ve won 15 of their first 24. You don’t have to wrap yourself into a pretzel to see where there were at least three or four more that they could have won without need for a heroic effort. It isn’t reasonable to note that they’ve fumbled away a few games that they probably should have won if you don’t also recognize that they’ve won a few that they probably should have lost.
15 wins in 24 games. That’s a 101-win pace. These thoughts just swirl around for me. On the one hand, it’s hard to imagine that the injuries and uneven play aren’t going to catch up to this team. It’s hard to believe there won’t be a slump. But also, this team is getting contributions up and down the roster. They are excellently managed, well run and this team looks like it’s built to contend. Like virtually all of the teams, they have some weaknesses. But, this team looks like a good one. 101 wins good? Probably not. If, they can find some relatively decent health, they do look like a team that can challenge 90 wins. It’s hard to dismiss that they’ve done this much without basically anything from their ace, Justin Steele.
Let’s look at three positives from this win.
- For this one, I just can’t resist the performance of Jameson Taillon. Jameson pitched into the sixth inning, allowed seven hits, two walks and two runs. Against a still very talented Astros team, that’s a very good performance. Two starts into his 2024 season, he’s looked excellent.
- Nico Hoerner had a pair of hits at the top of the order. One of those got the first inning off to a start that ultimately led to four runs.
- Dansby Swanson had just one hit in four at bats. But that hit was a three-run homer that ended up being enough to bring home the win.
Game 24, April 24: Cubs 4, Astros 3 (15-9)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Dansby Swanson (.180). 1-4, HR, 3 RBI, R
- Hero: Jameson Taillon (.133). 5⅔ IP, 26 batters, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 R, 1 ER, 4 K (W 2-0)
- Sidekick: Mark Leiter Jr. (.076). IP, 5 batters, 2 H, K
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Matt Mervis (-.033). 0-3
- Goat: Ian Happ (-.027). 1-4, R, DP
- Kid: Alexander Canario (-.017). 1-3
WPA Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson batted with runners on first and second and two outs in the first, the Cubs up one. He hit a three-run homer, scoring what would be the decisive run. (.208)
*Astros Play of the Game: In the third inning, Jake Meyers batted with runners on first and second with no outs in the third inning, the Cubs up four. Meyers bunted and the Cubs defense misplayed it, leading to a run and runners on first and third. (.109)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Mike Tauchman collected 74 percent of the votes with Jordan Wicks collecting most of the rest of the votes.
Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch/Mark Leiter Jr. +10
- Ben Brown +6
- Christopher Morel/Miles Mastrobuoni -5
- Adbert Alzolay -7
- Kyle Hendricks -15
Up Next: The Cubs look for a three game sweep over the visiting Astros. They’ll send Javier Assad to the hill in search of that win and keeping the momentum going. Javier is 2-0 with a 2.11 ERA in the early going. Last time out, he allowed one earned run over 4⅔ innings. The story for Assad remains consistent. He’s been very dependably good as a starter. But, he also needs to eventually learn to be more effective later into his starts.
41-year-old Justin Verlander is the opposition for this one. Justin was the second overall pick in the 2004 draft for the Tigers. He’s made just one start this year, throwing six innings and allowing two runs on four hits and no walks in a start in Washington. In a lengthy career that includes 510 appearances, all starts, he’s made only two starts against the Cubs. He won both of them. They are hardly relevant here as the most recent of those was back in 2012. He has actually started fewer games against the Cubs than any other team.
This is a tough challenge. I’m not willing to bet against this Cubs team though.