After a breakout season with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2019, top prospect Alex Verdugo was sent over to the Boston Red Sox alongside shortstop Jeter Downs and Connor Wong in exchange for 2018 MVP Mookie Betts.
After arriving in Boston, Verdugo managed to produce above-average results with an average wRC+ of 108 over his tenure with the Red Sox. His four years in Boston ended with a .285/.343/.433 slash line before he was traded to the New York Yankees in 2024 and signed by the Atlanta Braves in 2025.
A Second Chance in America’s Finest City
This weekend, General Manager A.J. Preller made a surprise pickup of Verdugo on a minor league deal. The signing bolstered the Padres’ outfield depth, giving San Diego more options behind their starting three of superstar Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Ramón Laureano.
Helping his case, there are no defensive worries. He’s no Tatis Jr. (obviously), but he still holds a career .986 fielding percentage. As a bench option or a minor-league depth piece when injuries crop up, Verdugo fits the mold perfectly.
What Happened to Him?
Verdugo was once a top prospect in Los Angeles, reaching no. 35 overall in MLB prospect rankings for 2019, but he has gone downhill each year since then. He posted the lowest OPS of his career in Atlanta last season with a .585.
It’s difficult to diagnose just what has plagued Verdugo over his nine-year career in MLB. It’s possible that his 2019 oblique injury (later categorized as an L5 stress fracture in his lower back) changed the way he swings.
Oblique injuries are fickle; some take only a week or two to return from, whereas others can take months. But the stress fracture he endured is noteworthy because it resulted from issues with over-rotating his body.
It’s not hard to link Verdugo’s offensive downturn to these problems. Rotation is key for elite hitters, with many being able to generate swing speeds above 75 miles per hour. According to Baseball Savant, Verdugo’s swing speed has averaged 67.7 mph over the last three years, ranking among the lowest percentile of batters.
That, combined with astronomically high chase, whiff, and strikeout percentages (21.4%, 14.4%, and 14.6%, respectively), has not helped his case. But what seems to be the most pressing issues are his hard-hit and sweet-spot percentages.
These stats measure the power and rate of optimal contact by a batter, offering a comprehensive look at the quality of contact made by batters. In Verdugo’s 2019 breakout year, he had a 39.7% hard-hit rate and a 33.7 sweet-spot % (hovering right around league average). But in recent years, he has fallen to a hard-hit % of 34.9 and a 31.6% sweet-spot rate.
San Diego Swoops In
All of these factors have contributed to his offensive decline in the last seven years, resulting in Verdugo being relegated to the bench at best, or being released by clubs at worst. So why would Preller want him?
Verdugo represents a buy-low veteran who offers depth at the minor-league level. And, on the off chance he rediscovers his former offensive prowess, he could earn a call-up to the big-league club.
It’s incredibly unlikely that Verdugo will supplant current bench outfielder Bryce Johnson, but the risk of picking him up is incredibly low on a minor league deal (and the upside is tremendous). If Verdugo can perform, it would be a remarkable turnaround for the veteran outfielder.
Main Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images