With early ballots revealed, the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame race is already taking shape—and it’s delivering real intrigue. According to BBHOFTracker’s publicly known ballots, several candidates are trending toward election, a few are gaining surprising momentum, and others appear stalled by long-standing voter resistance.
At the center of the conversation: Carlos Beltránand Andruw Jones leading the way, Félix Hernández outperforming expectations, Andy Pettitte making a notable leap, and a continued lack of enthusiasm for steroid-linked stars like Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez. Meanwhile, Cole Hamels’ modest showing stands out as one of the early head-scratchers.
Let’s break down who’s in position, who’s rising, and why this ballot feels like a turning point.
Carlos Beltrán: Near-Lock Status at Last
Carlos Beltrán sitting near 90 percent is no longer a surprise—it’s validation. One of the most complete center fielders of his era, Beltrán combined power, speed, defense, and postseason excellence. His 70.1 career WAR, elite baserunning, and iconic October moments (yes, even with the 2006 strikeout looking) make him a textbook Hall of Famer by modern standards.
What’s notable is how decisively voters appear ready to move past the Astros sign-stealing cloud. The message is clear: Beltrán’s body of work overwhelms the controversy. If trends hold, his Cooperstown call may come sooner rather than later.
Andruw Jones: Defense Is Finally Winning the Argument
Andruw Jones’ continued polling above 80 percent reflects a long-overdue reckoning with defensive value. Widely considered the greatest defensive center fielder in MLB history, Jones redefined run prevention at a premium position. Add in 434 home runs, 10 Gold Gloves, and elite peak years, and the case becomes undeniable.
Voters have increasingly embraced advanced metrics, and Jones is one of their biggest beneficiaries. His rise reinforces a larger trend: elite defense plus longevity now equals Hall of Fame credibility.
Félix Hernández: The Biggest Early Surprise
The most eye-opening development so far is Félix Hernández hovering near 60 percent. For a pitcher whose résumé lacks traditional milestones like 250 wins or 3,000 strikeouts, this is significant.
However, Félix represents a modern shift in the Hall of Fame. His dominant peak, Cy Young Award, perfect game, and ability to carry undermanned Mariners teams have resonated with voters who value context. He was often the best pitcher in baseball, even when wins didn’t follow.
This level of support suggests voters are increasingly comfortable honoring peak dominance over career accumulation, especially for pitchers in the post-steroid, pitch-count era.
Andy Pettitte’s Notable Jump
Andy Pettitte’s rise into the mid-50s is another major storyline. Long viewed as a “Hall of Very Good” candidate, Pettitte’s case has strengthened with time. He owns postseason records, remarkable consistency, and a reputation as a big-game pitcher on dynastic Yankees teams.
His admission of HGH use once dampened momentum, but voters appear to be recalibrating. Pettitte’s transparency, leadership, and October résumé are clearly carrying more weight now than they did in earlier ballots.
Chase Utley and the Kent Effect
Chase Utley, hovering near 67 percent, feels no accident. The recent Veterans Committee election of Jeff Kent has helped reframe the evaluation of second basemen. Utley was a superior all-around player—elite defensively, analytically beloved, and a postseason force.
With Kent now in Cooperstown, it’s easier for voters to justify Utley’s candidacy. Expect his momentum to continue as more ballots are revealed.
No Movement for Steroid-Era Stars
If you’re looking for a shift on Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez, you won’t find it here. Both remain well below the threshold, and the message from voters is consistent: PED ties remain a near-insurmountable barrier.
Despite historically great numbers, neither has seen the kind of late-career forgiveness afforded to players like Beltrán or Pettitte. For now, the Hall’s stance on steroid-era superstars remains firm.
Cole Hamels: Why So Low?
Perhaps the quietest surprise is Cole Hamels sitting in the low 30s. A World Series MVP, Cy Young winner, and model of consistency, Hamels checks many boxes voters typically reward.
His issue may be timing. On a crowded ballot with flashier peaks and louder narratives, Hamels risks being overlooked. Still, early percentages don’t tell the full story. Many pitchers have built cases slowly, and Hamels’ October pedigree could gain traction over time.
What This Ballot Tells Us
The 2026 Hall of Fame ballot reflects a changing electorate—one that values defense, peak dominance, and postseason impact more than ever. Félix Hernández’s rise and Andy Pettitte’s jump underscore that evolution, while the continued exclusion of steroid-linked stars shows where the line still stands.
As more ballots become public, expect movement. But one thing is already clear: this class is shaping up to be one of the most fascinating in years, blending old-school accomplishment with modern evaluation in a way that could redefine future Hall of Fame debates.