There’s a gravitational force in the NFL that tends to pull the 32 teams toward the middle of the pack.
That’s why the idea of parity is constantly bandied about. The salary cap and a draft based on the reverse order of standings fuel competitive balance. Well-stocked rosters for well-run organizations can be outliers for a good stretch. Bad rosters for franchises that are poorly managed wind up being routine bottom dwellers, a predicament the Chicago Bears have worked hard to escape.
The bulk of the league regularly cycles through an ebb and flow, the kind of thing that can make a worst-to-first season not all that uncommon. The Bears are on the precipice of going from last place in 2024 to first place, needing one victory or one Green Bay Packers loss in the final two weeks to clinch the NFC North.
Since 2002, when the NFL moved to eight four-team divisions, 25 teams have gone from the outhouse to the penthouse. While there wasn’t a single example last year, the Bears (11-4) and San Francisco 49ers (11-4) — opponents Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium — have a chance to do so this year, as do the New England Patriots (12-3). The Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4), who have a one-game lead in the AFC South, finished third a year ago when they were 4-13.
They stand as four of the best stories in the league in an unpredictable year in which three teams many expected to challenge for the Super Bowl — the Kansas City Chiefs (6-10), Baltimore Ravens (7-8) and Detroit Lions (8-8) — have hit rough patches. The Ravens are still in the playoff hunt, but their season has been filled with challenges.
Bears nose tackle Andrew Billings, an eight-year veteran, admitted having a little envy as he watched other teams perform worst-to-first turnarounds throughout his career. This is the first team he has been on that will finish with a winning record, and he has been on four teams that have finished last, including the Bears the previous two years.
“I’m not going to lie,” Billings said, “I still don’t know what it is. It’s that factor … intangibles. Maybe we’ll look back at it one day and say, ‘That’s what it was.’ But right now? I don’t know. And it’s not like we’ve had crazy turnover. The O-line is different and that’s shown up. Not a lot of player change otherwise.”
That’s a nod to general manager Ryan Poles and the front office for assembling a roster that was readier to compete than most noticed — with the definite exception of coach Ben Johnson. Remember, Johnson declared he was on a mission to “win and win now” when he was hired in January.
There’s a fine line between winning and losing in the NFL, a razor-sharp edge the Bears have been on with a 6-1 record in games decided by five points or fewer and so many games coming down to the final two minutes and even overtime, such as the Week 16 victory over the Packers.
“It’s really just a belief,” middle linebacker T.J. Edwards said. “When you get a group of guys that are all believing in one another no matter what’s going on or what the score is, that’s hard to beat. That’s the culture and what sustains.
“We started to build that early. It’s one of those things where it didn’t pop right away. We had to keep going and it’s starting to show up now.”
Said Johnson: “When you look at our roster, we have a number of really talented players that have not been a part of this. When you look at DJ (Moore) and Cole (Kmet), guys that have been (around) — I just talked to Andrew Billings about it and this is the most (wins) he’s ever been a part of.
“These guys have been around for a long time. When that happens and you’re someone that hasn’t experienced it a whole lot, you’re just grateful. And you want to take advantage of the opportunity. You just don’t know when it’s going to happen again. That’s the nature of the NFL. The parity is so strong that when you have a good season and you win some of these one-score games like we’ve been able to do to put ourselves in a good spot, we want to make sure we capitalize on it.”
That’s why Johnson emphasized the Bears have checked only one box on their list of goals — securing a playoff spot. Remaining on the to-do list are winning the division, challenging for the No. 1 seed and, finally, a deep playoff run.
Since the NFL expanded to four divisions in 1967, four teams that went from worst to first in their division went on to win the Super Bowl. The first was the 1999 St. Louis Rams, followed by the 2001 Patriots, 2009 New Orleans Saints and 2017 Philadelphia Eagles. The first three were led by current or future Hall of Fame quarterbacks — Kurt Warner, Tom Brady and Drew Brees — and the 2017 Eagles stand as one of the great Cinderella stories with backup quarterback Nick Foles leading the way.
Of the 25 worst-to-first cases since 2002, five went on to repeat as division champions the next year, including the 2005 Bears. Just as many returned to last place the following season. Of the 25, eight made it back to the playoffs the next season.
While the focus should remain on the season at hand and opportunities ahead of the Bears, the big picture cannot be overlooked, and sustained success is the ultimate goal. The fact only 40% of worst-to-first teams returned to the postseason the year after their breakthrough is indicative of the cycle, the parity and how truly laying a foundation for success can be challenging even when so much is seemingly going right.
The Bears hit a tailspin after going from worst in 2017 to first in 2018, spinning out with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback and then floundering during the Justin Fields era. The quarterbacks were only part of myriad issues that plagued the organization, but as this year’s team has shown, maybe there was more to win with than met the eye during a dysfunctional 2024 collapse.
The Bears also bottomed out in 2002 coming off a 13-3 season in 2001 that followed a last-place finish in 2000. That 2002 season deserves an asterisk as the team was playing home games at the University of Illinois in Champaign and injuries ravaged the roster.
Right guard Jonah Jackson was part of the rebuild in Detroit, and while the Lions went from fourth to second before winning the NFC North, it was a rapid ascent when they finally got going.
“Even though we were really bad in Detroit, we were losing close games,” Jackson said. “The margin of defeat was minimal. It just comes down to belief and finishing the game. That’s what I feel has been the masterful part of our season.
“We don’t feel like our luck has ever run out. I’m not saying it’s luck, but we know at some point, someone is going to make something happen and we’ll be able to capitalize.”
With the playoffs ahead, an opportunity presents itself. The Bears could very well be one of the latest worst-to-first examples — but that alone won’t meet their desires.
Scouting report
Malik Mustapha, 49ers free safety
Information for this report was obtained from NFL scouts.
Mustapha, 5-foot-10 and 206 pounds, is in his second season with the 49ers, who drafted him in the fourth round in 2024 out of Wake Forest. Despite missing the first five games of the season with a knee injury, he is fourth on the team in tackles (68) and second in solo tackles (39).
Mustapha has 32 tackles (21 solos) over the last four games and has two career interceptions and seven pass breakups.
“When he was in school — and I’m not very often watching Wake Forest tape — this guy was dynamic downhill and violent downhill,” the scout said. “I mean, he is a demon going downhill. Extreme forward ability. A missile to the football. He sees things fast, he doesn’t use a lot of wasted movement and he will thump you on contact.
“The best thing they did for him this year was bringing Robert Saleh back as defensive coordinator. In Saleh’s scheme, they play a lot of split safety and they will move him down to the box where he can be that natural disruptor around the line of scrimmage and he keeps the ball in front of him. Where he gets into issues is he doesn’t have a ton of range over the top. He’s not a post player. He’s more of a short strider, so if he gets caught over the top, he can be exposed in coverage.
“But Saleh protects him in that scheme and allows him to be a downhill menace. That’s what he is. He makes plays and he hits at top speed. He’s fearless, but, again, he’s got some limitations. I call him a scheme-specific player.”