Baker Mayfield stares down a simple truth on November 23. He can’t dress it up. He can’t scramble away from it. There’s one thing eating his lunch. Suppose you’re playing poker with house money. You’ve got pocket aces. Then the dealer flips the river card, and all of a sudden… you’re holding air.
That’s Baker Mayfield against extra pressure this season. And the NFL is a photocopy machine. Defensive coordinators see something that works, they hit print. New Orleans exposed it. Buffalo exploited it. Los Angeles will weaponize it. Mayfield’s one flaw—his handling of the blitz—could sink the Buccaneers‘ playoff hopes before December even arrives.
Baker Mayfield’s Blitz Nightmare
Mayfield completes just 51.6% of his passes when teams send extra rushers. That’s fourth-worst in the league. His 5.0 yards per attempt against the blitz? Dead last. Yep, that’s right. The same quarterback who carved up Seattle for 379 yards in Week 5 becomes a different player when coordinators get aggressive. And the Saints game showed the blueprint.
New Orleans blitzed 48.1% of the time. Mayfield went 4-for-11 for 12 yards against those looks. He took two sacks. Against four rushers? He looked like a Pro Bowler—11 of 13 for 140 yards. The difference is telling. Meanwhile, Buffalo doubled down in Week 11.
Cole Bishop’s diving interception came against a blitz look. That pick flipped a 26-24 lead into a 31-26 deficit. Josh Allen didn’t need to be heroic. He just needed Mayfield to hand him the football. That’s the danger in a nutshell.
“Yeah, he was limited… he’s in all, of course, all the meetings, all the walkthroughs, and he does such a good job of preparing already,” offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard said earlier this season. Preparation must meet execution on Sunday night. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford isn’t waiting around for mistakes.
Why Stafford Changes Everything
Stafford’s punishing ’em in real time. The Rams quarterback sits atop the touchdown leaderboard with 27 scores against just two interceptions. And his 112.7 passer rating ranks third in football. Stafford works like a surgeon. Hence, the Buccaneers’ defense must evade being patient.
The Rams don’t need to dominate time of possession. They just need three or four drives. Stafford converts those into points. Every. Single. Time. Jacob Parrish knows the challenge.
The rookie cornerback said, “Yeah, I grew up watching him a lot. He has elite arm talent. He trusts his arm a lot, and he does those no-look passes.” The respect drips from his voice. But Tampa Bay’s secondary can’t gamble. They can’t guess. Besides, Mayfield can flip this script.
Mayfield’s mission is to outplay a QB who once mentored him. He must first recognize pre-snap chaos. Then he needs a faster release. The hot read becomes his best friend. That wheel route to Sean Tucker? More of that. Quick slants. Screens. Max protection schemes. Anything to neutralize Aaron Donald and the Rams’ pass rush.
Grizzard noted Mayfield’s health improvement after the bye. “He’s definitely feeling better coming off the Bye and having a coupleof weeks to really get healthy there.” Health helps. But correcting your flaws helps more. The chess match starts at the line of scrimmage.
Bucs’ Path to Victory
Success looks simple on paper. Fewer sacks. Higher completion rate against pressure. Sustained drives that bleed clock. Mayfield scrambled for 245 yards this season, the most in the league. Use that mobility wisely. Don’t run from pressure—attack its edges.
The Bills’ game provided a blueprint. Mayfield ran for 39 yards and a touchdown. He kept plays alive. Just couldn’t do it consistently enough. Against the Rams, consistency becomes king. Todd Bowles faces his own decisions.
“We’ll play a couple guys there,” he said about potential cornerback rotations. Dean’s hip injury might force Benjamin Morrison or Parrish into expanded roles. The defense needs all hands on deck.
One three-and-out against Stafford can become a seven-point deficit. One sack-fumble can become a halftime hole. Mayfield must treat every blitz like a pop quiz he’s already aced. The Buccaneers stand at 6-4 and are on a bad streak. The division is at stake. The season pivots on this game. Mayfield’s flaw isn’t fatal yet. Fixing it makes him dangerous again. Leaving it broken gives Stafford the keys to the kingdom.
Sunday night settles the debate. Will Mayfield adjust? Or will the Rams blitz him into oblivion? The answer determines whether Tampa Bay stays relevant or starts booking January vacations.
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