The Toronto Maple Leafs look to halt their downward slide as they return home to host the Chicago Blackhawks. Welcome back to NHL Predictions with Last Word On Hockey. The Leafs continue to face roster adversity and internal pressure after dropping four straight games. This is all the while missing key players, including star centre Auston Matthews, starting goaltender Anthony Stolarz, and shutdown defenceman Chris Tanev. Meanwhile, the Chicago Blackhawks enter this matchup looking far more confident, having won two of their last three and building momentum around their young core.
NHL Predictions
2025–26 Head-to-Head: Leafs 0–0 Blackhawks
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to Watch: Sportsnet Ontario, ESPN+, NBC Chicago, CBC
This game sets up as a compelling test for a Leafs team desperately needing a response and a Blackhawks squad eager to take advantage of Toronto’s instability.
Why the Blackhawks Have the Edge
The Leafs continue to bleed goals at an unsustainable rate. Through 18 games, Toronto is averaging 3.78 goals against per game, one of the league’s lowest defensive marks. Without Chris Tanev and with their remaining blueline being overworked and inconsistent, Toronto keeps surrendering high-danger chances in the slot and off the rush.
Toronto’s Defensive Instability Remains a Major Issue
Chicago thrives in exactly those situations. Their young forwards, led by Connor Bedard and supported by goal scorers like Andre Burakovsky and Tyler Bertuzzi, feast on teams that can’t defend speed or structure. If the Leafs allow the same breakdowns that plagued them against Boston, Chicago’s transition game will punish them.
Blackhawks’ Youth Movement Has Sparked Their Play
Chicago enters this matchup with confidence after winning three of four games with wins against the Red Wings, Flames, and Canucks. They’ve tightened their defensive play, received stable goaltending from Spencer Knight and are now controlling pace far more effectively than last season.
They also carry none of the pressure Toronto currently faces. That freedom often allows younger, rebuilding teams to play loose, fast, and opportunistic, a dangerous formula against a Leafs roster missing key pieces.
Toronto’s Psychological Burden Is Growing
The Leafs have lost three straight and are dealing with growing scrutiny and tension. Losing Matthews and Stolarz amplified lineup instability, and the locker room now carries visible frustration. When Toronto’s structure crumbles under pressure, opponents with speed and confidence typically expose it.
Chicago enters with momentum and without expectation, a combination that has produced upsets throughout this early NHL season.
How the Leafs Could Respond, But It Might Not Be Enough
Even without Matthews, Toronto still features elite offensive weapons. William Nylander, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies remain capable of driving scoring chances. At home, with the last change, the Leafs can attempt to dictate matchups and force Chicago into defensive zone shifts they struggle handling.
If Toronto can produce early offence and generate sustained possession, they could flip the script.
Toronto’s Urgency Is Increasing
The Leafs are now nearing desperation mode. Three straight losses, poor defensive play, and injuries have created a pressure cooker environment. Sometimes, that tension triggers a hard push, especially from a veteran core led by Nylander and Tavares.
Expect Toronto to come out with far more intensity than recent games, especially in the opening 10 minutes.
Blackhawks Still Have Roster Holes
Although Chicago is improving, it still lacks the overall depth and defensive structure of playoff-calibre teams. If Toronto can exploit matchup advantages, particularly in the second and third lines, there is room for the Leafs to control play.
But defensive lapses may still overshadow whatever offence they can generate.
Prediction and Key Bets
Final Score Prediction: Blackhawks 4 – Maple Leafs 3
Expect the Blackhawks to take advantage of Toronto’s depleted lineup and defensive vulnerabilities. Chicago will control key stretches of the game, especially through transition, and while Toronto will mount a late push, it may not be enough to stop the skid.
Best Betting Angles:
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Moneyline: Chicago Blackhawks win
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Total Goals: Over 6.5 — both teams have leaky defences and scoring talent
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Anytime Goalscorer: Connor Bedard
Main Photo Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
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