Reds 7th overall prospect Chase Petty is a name baseball fans have been accustomed to for a while now. From dominating high school hitters in the Tri State Area to becoming the Twins first round pick in 2021, to a main piece in Cincinnati’s minor league system via the Sonny Gray trade, he is still just 22 years-old.
What’s Next For Reds Prospect Chase Petty?
2025 saw Petty make his MLB debut, where he pitched quite poorly in his cup of coffee. He was thrown into some odd situations by manager Terry Francona, but he struggled in Triple-A as well. It was overall a poor year for Petty, and his prospect pedigree has taken a hit as a result.
What was once labeled as an electric arm is now facing concern for that same fastball becoming his worst pitch. It will be an important offseason for Petty to retool his pitch mix.
Let’s dig into some of his struggles and more importantly, what he can do to bounce back.
Petty’s Track Record
Petty has had an up and down track record from year to year ever since he became a professional.
2021: 5.40 ERA
2022: 3.48 ERA
2023: 1.72 ERA
2024: 4.20 ERA
2025: 6.39 ERA
He was a quick riser as he made it to Triple-A at just 21 years old, but it has been a tough hill for him to climb over ever since.
Petty’s 2025 Numbers
In 2025, Petty made 26 starts for Triple-A Louisville, totaling 112 2/3 innings with a 6.39 ERA. Despite the velocity, he has never been a strikeout guy. He has never recorded a K% higher than 22.9% in a full season, and it remained more of the same in 2025 with a 19.6 K%.
Petty also continued to struggle with limiting base runners, evident by his 1.61 WHIP due to his 11.2 BB%. This was an area of his game that he carried into the big leagues as he had a 20.0 BB%, albeit in a small sample size of six innings.
Petty’s Pitch Mix Troubles
Petty has a heavy fastball mix with a four-seam, cutter, sinker, slider, and a change-up. His four seam and cutter averaged at 95.3 MPH in 2025, a pitches that he used 40.8% of the time. The slider, which was his other primary pitch in 20205, averaged 86.9 MPH and was used 42.6% of the time. His change-up was used 11.8% of the time at 88.3 MPH, and he flashed his sinker very occasionally, just 4.7% of the time at 94.6 MPH.
The velocity is still a strength of his, as he sits mid 90s and has the ability to dial it up to the upper 90s when needed. Despite the velocity, it has actually been Petty’s worst pitch as he had a -4.6 runs above average on his four seam and cutter. In fact, his slider and change-up weren’t much better either as his slider had a -2.3 runs above average and his change-up had a -1.6 runs above average.
His best pitch was his sinker at 0.4 runs above average, even though it was his third most used fastball.
Petty’s Upside
While these numbers aren’t great, he is still extremely young and has plenty of time to develop. Since he was such a quick riser, he was unposed to superior competition much earlier than most other prospects.
His pitch mix is in need of an overhaul. Whether it is reshaping the pitches, scratching and adding pitches, changing the usage percentages, or whatever he and his team figures to do this offseason.
There has been multiple pitchers, most notably Corbin Burnes after his 2019 struggles, who have revamped their pix mixes.
It is clear that although Petty’s fastball got him to the professional level, it has not cut it so far. Seeing as his sinker is his best pitch currently, he can switch to become a sinker and slider guy. That could mold perfectly in the hitter friendly Great American Ball Park.
It is an important offseason for Petty not only because of the adjustments needed, but because of the mental fortitude as well. For a 22 year-old to get kicked in the mouth in his cup of coffee with the big league club, the organization will have their eyes on him to see how he bounces back.
He will start the season in Triple-A. It should not shock anyone if he finds himself on the big league team next year.
Main Photo Credits: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
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