Donald Trump appears to have finally fallen out of love with Vladimir Putin, which is good news, long time coming.
If you cut through all of the back-and-forth over the past week regarding the war in Ukraine, the central issue remains the same. And unresolved.
Putin invaded a sovereign nation. That country fought back harder than the Russian dictator predicted, resulting in a quagmire that over time has weakened Putin. That weakness, as finally perceived by an American president who admires only strength, explains the current Trumpian disaffection better than what actually should have caused Trump never to fall in love in the first place: Putin’s desire to re-create as much as possible of the Soviet Union, whatever the cost both to democracy and to human life, both Ukrainian and Russian.
Still, Trump knows how to exploit weakness better than most. So if the breakup is serious, let’s hope he finally gets behind Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who wryly observed this week that Putin wants the total occupation of Ukraine, which is exactly what he wanted when the Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in February 2022 as part of what Putin said at the time was a “special military operation.” Putin is not about to want something different; the question for this U.S. administration is when and how he is going to be convinced that Trump will prevent him from getting it.
Zelenskyy, who has greatly improved his Trump-flattering skills in recent days, clearly sees the opportunity, comparing Putin’s weakness to that of Hamas in a part of the world where Trump was able to broker at least a tentative peace. Trump likes to see himself as peace-deal-maker not just par excellence but on a global roll, and the more Zelenskyy can play into that, the better for Ukraine. If we were Zelenskyy advisers able to whisper in Trump’s ear, we would just keep repeating, “Putin is weak. Putin is weak. Putin is weak,” until we saw the cogs finally start to move.
It might take a while; Trump has been convinced for so many years of the personal utility of the man’s strength. But convincing him otherwise still is the Lord’s work.
Oil sanctions are a good idea, long time coming. So is talking about sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Former Chicago mayor and ambassador Rahm Emanuel made the point to us the other day that the Gaza ceasefire came about in no small measure because both ordinary Israeli and Palestinian people, weary of war, pressured leaders to make a deal those leaders did not really want to make. To what degree Putin is open to such domestic pressure is debatable, but it is worth the effort. Oil sanctions will hit Russia’s economy, big time.
Reasonable people know, and we think Zelenskyy now understands, that long wars typically don’t end with one side getting everything and, as the European nations generally have agreed, the right starting point for negotiations is the situation on the ground now in terms of who controls what. A starting point, which means nothing beyond and certainly less. But the main thing is that Putin has to stand up and acknowledge Ukraine’s right to exist in peace.
On Thursday, Putin told reporters that “no self-respecting country ever does anything under pressure.”
What weak rhetoric. Ratcheting up the pressure on the pathetic Putin will be the only way this war ends.
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