Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Chicago Blackhawks. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 season.
Time: 6:45 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
How to Watch TV: ESPN+
Location: Benchmark International Arena
2024–25 Season Series: Lightning 1 – Blackhawks 1
The Bolts are coming off another stinging loss, this time a 3–2 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets. They were outshot (31-24), out hit (23–14), and racked up more penalty minutes than power play time. Not exactly the kind of stats you hang on the fridge. Ryan McDonagh and Anthony Cirelli both hit the scoresheet, but it wasn’t enough. Jonas Johansson manned the crease with 28 saves, looking like a stunt double still shaking off some first action scene cobwebs.
The good news? Tampa doesn’t usually lose four in a row without making some noise. They’ve still got one of the league’s most potent offensive cores, and when the lines click, you don’t need to blink to miss a two-goal swing. The bad news? A two-game losing streak to start the season and now a three-game losing streak following their only win does not inspire confidence.
NHL Predictions Key to Victory – Tampa Bay
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Keep it clean and simple: Tampa’s zone exits looked frantic last game. They need to slow the game down, control the neutral zone, and stop giving teams like the Blue Jackets and now the Blackhawks 2-on-1 opportunities off broken plays.
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Feed the top line: Nikita Kucherov hasn’t scored since his opening night pair, which still resulted in a loss. He’s due. Feed him. Build him a sandwich if you have to do it.
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Hedman must wake up: Zero goals through six games? No, no, no. Big Swede needs to play like a man who’s seen too many Norris snubs. Own the blueline, especially on the PP.
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Watch out for Bedard: Don’t let the kid get space. Chicago lives and dies by his ability to create chaos.
Chicago Blackhawks Outlook
Chicago enters this one somewhere between “rebuilding” and “resurfacing.” They sit at 3-2-2 with a bunch of their losses coming by a point in each. Connor Bedard has already flashed signs of superstardom. He is stickhandling in a phone booth, vision like a veteran, and a shot that can surprise even the best tendies. But the Hawks are still thin when it comes to depth. Veterans like Ryan Donato (three goals, two assists) have helped stabilize the middle six, but team defence remains a work-in-progress. Their last outing, a 2-1 win over the Ducks showed moments of brilliance… followed by defensive lapses that make coaches grab the Pepto.
Goaltender Arvid Söderblom is projected to start, and while talented, he’ll need to be on his game to hold back Tampa’s firepower. He has given up seven goals in his two games.
NHL Predictions to Victory – Chicago
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Disrupt Tampa’s timing: The Lightning aren’t a “grind it out” team. If Chicago can clog the neutral zone and pressure their defence early, they might force turnovers and fast breaks.
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Let Bedard cook: His two goals are fine, but the five assists show he can guide the team even when he doesn’t light the lamp. Give him zone entries, power play touches, and every bit of puck you’ve got. He’s your spark plug.
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Win the special teams battle: Against Tampa, this is often the only way to stay even. Their power play can dismantle weaker PK units in minutes.
Prediction: Who Takes the W?
Tampa’s firepower is just too much for a young Hawks squad still finding its rhythm. Even with Bedard playing well, the Blackhawks will struggle to contain Kucherov, Point, and the Bolts’ relentless pace. But the Bolts are struggling, so instead of predicting a three goal victory, we will squeeze this one out.
Prediction: Lightning 3, Blackhawks 2
Expect Tampa to score early, coast a little, and then pile on late when the top line gets mismatches. If Vasilevskiy is back in net, he will need to look more dialed in, and Kucherov should finally snap his scoring drought. Or he will need to invest heavily in Gatorade stock.
Prop Bets of the Night
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Over 6.5 Total Goals (-115)
The Blackhawks give up chances, and Tampa knows how to finish. Expect some fireworks.
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Kucherov Over 1.5 Points (+125)
He’s due. He’s fuming. He’s about to remind everyone why he’s still elite.
Final Thoughts
This one’s got all the ingredients for a highlight reel night, elite snipers, a generational talent, and two teams with something to prove. The Lightning want to re-establish dominance after their horrid start. The Blackhawks want to prove they’re not just a one-line show.
Main Photo Jamie Sabau – Imagn Images
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The post NHL Predictions: October 23rd Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Chicago Blackhawks appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.