Right-hander Brad Keller is slated for free agency but would seemingly be very happy to be a Cub again next year. “Chicago is my favorite city,” Keller said, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. “I love being in Chicago. I love playing for the Cubs. This is definitely a place that I want to come back to and enjoy. I know a lot of these guys are returning to this clubhouse, and I feel like there’s something special here. I would love to be a part of it, for sure.”
Keller, 30, is going to have a far more robust market than he did a year ago. Coming into 2025, he had to settle for a minor league deal with the Cubs. He spent a lot of 2023 on the injured list due to shoulder problems and then had surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome in the fall of that year. He was back on the mound in 2024 but tossed 41 1/3 innings between the White Sox and Red Sox with a 5.44 earned run average.
No one was willing to give him a big league spot last winter but he has raised his stock considerably since then. The Cubs added him to their 40-man roster after the Tokyo Series but before domestic Opening Day. He went on to toss 69 2/3 innings out of the Chicago bullpen this year with a 2.07 ERA. He struck out 27.2% of batters faced, limited walks to an 8% clip and got opponents to hit grounders on 56.1% of balls in play.
The ERA is probably a bit misleading. Keller’s .243 batting average on balls in play and 81.6% strand rate were both the fortunate side. But his 2.93 FIP and 3.04 SIERA still suggest it would have been a great year even with neutral luck from the baseball gods. The Cubs moved him into a leverage role as the year wore on, with Keller eventually earning three saves and 25 holds. He made the postseason roster and tossed 5 2/3 playoff innings with just one run allowed.
Some teams may still have some hesitations about committing to Keller based on one strong season but we’ve seen clubs spend on players in these kinds of situations before. Last winter, Jeff Hoffman got three years and $33MM from the Blue Jays after two good years in Philadelphia’s bullpen. He actually had higher offers from Baltimore and Atlanta before concerns about his shoulder tamped down his market somewhat. The prior offseason, Robert Stephenson was able to get the same $33MM over three years from the Angels after just half a season of dominance with the Rays.
It’s also possible some team envisions Keller as a possible starter next year. He was largely in the rotation with the Royals from 2018 to 2022, with some decent results in there as a ground ball guy. He had a 3.50 ERA over the first three years of that span. His 16.8% strikeout rate was subpar but he got grounders at a 52.1% clip. His ERA rose above 5.00 in his final two years in Kansas City and he had his aforementioned injury-marred 2023 and uninspiring bounceback season in 2024.
Some pitchers have been put back into starting roles after reaching free agency lately, with mixed results. Seth Lugo got $15MM over two years from the Padres but then opted out of the second year of that deal and got $45MM over three years from the Royals. Last winter, Clay Holmes got three years and $38MM from the Mets. He had a longer track record of relief success than Keller but hadn’t really started in the majors. That deal has worked out well so far, with Holmes posting a 3.53 ERA in 165 2/3 innings this year. Jordan Hicks, another ground ball specialist, also got $44MM over four years but his rotation conversion didn’t go nearly as well. Reynaldo López got $30MM over three years from Atlanta and the first year went great but the second year was marred by injuries.
Whether or not any club wants to try Keller in the rotation remains to be seen. Even as a pure reliever, he has a case for a strong multi-year deal. That’s more than the Cubs like to spend on the bullpen. Since Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations five years ago, the club hasn’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever. As shown in MLBTR Contract Tracker, Hoyer has only once given out more than $5MM, which was a $9MM deal for Héctor Neris.
The club clearly prefers to find diamonds in the rough, like they did by getting Keller in his minor league deal last winter. Perhaps that means Keller will get paid elsewhere as the Cubs look to find another Keller in the bargain bin. If they do want to bring him back, they should have the ability to do it. RosterResource estimates that the Cubs had a $206MM payroll in 2025 with just $136MM slated for next year’s roster.
They will have other needs, including the rotation. It’s also possible they look to re-sign Kyle Tucker or perhaps make another run at Alex Bregman. But the bullpen should also be a focus this winter. In addition to Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Drew Pomeranz, Ryan Brasier, Michael Soroka and Aaron Civale are impending free agents. Andrew Kittredge could be added to the list, though he has a $9MM club option for next year with a $1MM buyout. Colin Rea has a $6MM club option with a $750K buyout. In short, bolstering the bullpen will be on the to-do list this winter.
Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images