Red zone opportunity share is one of the most reliable usage signals in fantasy football. Through Week 4 of the 2025 season, a handful of players control a disproportionate slice of their teams’ touches inside the 20. The angles below avoid the obvious headliners and focus on edges managers can exploit in standard 12-team leagues.
What Red Zone Share Is Telling for Fantasy Football
This analysis tracks a player’s involvement specifically inside the red zone: running backs by share of team red zone carries, pass-catchers by share of team red zone targets. For multipath backs, “total red zone share” combines both. Because touchdowns cluster near the goal line, consolidated red zone roles tend to precede sustained scoring.
Jaylen Warren is undervalued relative to role
Warren opened 2025 as the Pittsburgh Steelers starter after Najee Harris left for the Los Angeles Chargers. Early usage shows he’s handling the majority of the Steelers’ red zone opportunities with 36%, even after missing the Week 4 game. His only 1 touchdown this season, hides 13 opportunities in the red zone. The broader pattern points to Pittsburgh trusting the ground game near the stripe—exactly the context that supports Warren’s weekly floor. The Steelers are the 6th most-reliant team on the running game in the endzone, with 61%. If he is at sale for a discount on that role, that’s a buying window.
What this means for managers: Treat Warren as a hold/buy where the market prices him as a low-end flex. The team-level posture (run-leaning in close) props up his touchdown odds when healthy.
Detroit Lions shift in the money zone
The early Detroit ledger suggests Jahmyr Gibbs plus Amon-Ra St. Brown are now the preferred red zone pairing, handling 71% of the opportunities. Gibbs’ combined rushing/receiving share (44%) and St. Brown’s heavy red zone target rate (43%) point to a usage tilt away from last season’s David Montgomery-centric finishing. Action: strong hold on Gibbs; Montgomery looks more matchup-driven than bankable and could be a sell-high after strong performances.
Temper expectations: the split is the story
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Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson owns elite receiving access in the red zone (38% of targets), but Tyler Allgeier still had the same number of red zone carries than Robinson. That duality caps Bijan’s weekly touchdown ceiling even while his floor remains high. That could be even worse if the Falcons start using more of their WRs and TEs in those kinds of situations.
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Seattle Seahawks: Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are essentially sharing high-value touches in close, with 50% and 45% of the carries and no targets in the red zone. Until the Seahawks consolidate around one finisher, treat both as volatile RB2/FLEX options.
QB vultures explain RB droughts
Some offenses are engineered to finish with the quarterback in tight. Jalen Hurts remains the template in the Philadelphia Eagles with designed sneaks and power looks, taking a 41% carry share; Josh Allen (34%) and Lamar Jackson (29%) create similar gravity for their backfields. Good running-back usage can still produce thin TD totals in these ecosystems—context that should shape weekly expectations.
Deep-league & streaming edges
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Hunter Henry (NE): A 38% red zone target share is bankable TE production on a thin landscape. He belongs on rosters in every 12-team league. Recent local notes continue to highlight his RZ role
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Chimere Dike (TEN): The Tennessee Titans had the fewest red zone plays in the league, but 6 of 19 (30%) were directed to Dike – that is the same number of opportunities as Tony Pollard. That should be enough for a stash in 14-team formats and deeper benches.
Avoid chasing touchdowns in a crowd
The Kansas City Chiefs and the Washington Commanders are the only teams where no players make up to at least 20% of red zone opportunities. Without consolidation, this are “sit unless desperate” backfields.
What to do this week
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Trade/Acquire: Jaylen Warren (pricing mismatch vs. role), Hunter Henry (should graduate from streamer).
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Hold with volatility, sell if there is value: Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet until the split changes; David Montgomery.
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Deep add: Chimere Dike where benches allow.
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Context flags: Quarterback-centric red zone teams (PHI/BUF/BAL) suppress RB TDs relative to usage
Main Image: Charles LeClaire – Imagn Images
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