A rough day all around for the Cubs, who lose 8-4.
I ended work for the day on a little bit of a high note, seeing the Jed Hoyer extension. We’re not alike if you don’t think that was the right thing to do. At least one national baseball website had the Cubs as their No. 1 team in their weekly power rankings. I’m dismissive of those over 99% of the time, so I’m not going to spike the football on that. But the Cubs entered today tied for first in their division and similarly tied for the best record in the National League. They’ve spent a few days this year with the best record in all of baseball. They have a well stocked and strong minor league system. From the big moves to the small, the vast majority of every move he made last offseason has exceeded expectations. The man has put together a really strong organization, without flexing financial might.
The Cubs jumped out in front with three runs in the first inning off of Brewers phenom Jacob Misiorowski. After seeing him throw, I feel like I nailed it in the preview for this game. One of the more ludicrous All-Star selections I can remember and a guy who will likely be a star in the future. To that point in my day, I was on baseball cloud nine.
Six straight runs over a four-inning period turned a dream into a nightmare and then learning that Ryne Sandberg had died was like being kicked after being knocked down. I think most of us read between the lines and knew this was coming, but that doesn’t make it much different. Over the last week, I’ve lost a lot of the entertainment of the first half of my life.
My Chicago team sports Mt. Rushmore is down to two living players after losing Walter and Ryne. Leaving Michael and Patrick. I know there are guys who played before, during and after those guys who accomplished some amazing things. But those were the guys who I watched large chunks of and shaped my fandom for each of those four sports and teams.
I said it elsewhere, with Walter and Ryne as my first two favorite sports players, I definitely am a quiet leadership kind of guy more than a spike the football or toss the bat kind of guy. It took me a while, but I’ve come to enjoy guys enjoying the game. I still am the last guy ever to be involved with any kind of trash talking or any of that stuff. I’m just not that guy. Play hard, play right, win. On those occasions where you don’t, tip your cap and try to learn from defeat.
I’m beyond tired of the Brewers at this point in time. They just keep coming, or in this case going. They have overcome a pretty significant deficit in the division and now own the division lead. I still think the Cubs are the better team, but it was hard to have too much conviction with that as they were running a merry-go-round over a five inning period.
Key Storylines:
- Starting Pitching: Matthew Boyd has been tremendous this year. He didn’t have it today. He was uncharacteristically wild. He didn’t have command on his fastball and his curveball kept missing the zone. The Brewers are such a disciplined team. They had the right approach against an ace, forcing him to throw strikes and he struggled to do so.
- Relief Pitching: Two Cubs relievers allowed three runs over three innings of work. Possibly the two guys on the hot seat as the deadline approaches. I’d set the over/under at 2.5 pitchers acquired at the deadline. Add in a couple of guys on their way back from injury and the staff is going to get crowded in the days and weeks to come.
- Homer Over Reliance: Four runs, no homers. Just six hits, no extra base hits. They did draw five walks. No stolen bases. The first inning was more than a little bit luck but also an example of how pesky the team can be. The rest was pretty flat.
- Third Base Production: Matt Shaw was hitless in four at bats with three strikeouts.
- Dansby Swanson: Batted seventh. A walk and a strikeout in four plate appearances. I laughed out loud during the broadcast when I was thinking that Dansby really hangs in there against tough pitching just as JD pointed out that he was right on a couple of pitches but fouled them off. That feels strangely symbolic of Dansby offensively. He has all of the presence of a superstar and results of a league average bat.
- Opposing starter: Three runs, albeit two earned, against a phenom in the making may look like a strong performance in a couple of years. We’ll see how he holds up as he’s eventually fully cut loose on major league baseball.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 126 over 8, 38 BF
- Brewers: 157, 39 BF
Pitch counts is a fairly misleading metric on this night. The Cubs threw just over 15 pitches per inning. That’s kind of water level. Not a disaster by any means. But the Brewers did have 10 hits and drew 5 walks. The Cubs limited pitch count, in part, by only striking out three hitters. The Brewers put a bunch of balls into play and three of them out of the place.
On the other hand, the Brewers threw over 17 pitches per inning. They allowed six hits, five walks and hit two batters. Their pitch count was run up, in part, because they struck out 14 Cubs. The one pyrrhic victory was that the Brewers had to use seven relievers to close out a four run win. Can attrition help them later in the series? The Cubs used only two relievers. Ryan Pressly only threw 11 pitches and will be available if the Cubs want to use him again in the series. Chris Flexen only threw 25. He usually gets multiple days of rest, but this one shouldn’t mandate that he get extended rest.
Three Stars:
- Michael Busch reached base four time in five plate appearances, two singles, a walk and a hit by pitch. He scored a run.
- Kyle Tucker reached three times in five plate appearances, a single, two walks, a run and a run batted in.
- Seiya Suzuki reached twice in five plate appearances, a single and a walk. One run scored.
Game 106, July 28: Brewers 8, Cubs 4 (62-44)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Michael Busch (.110). 2-3, BB, HBP, R
- Hero: Ian Happ (.083). 1-4, RBI
- Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.036). 1-4, BB, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Matthew Boyd (-.343). 5 IP, 25 BF, 6 H, 5 BB, 5 ER, 2 K (L 11-4)
- Goat: Carson Kelly (-.092). 0-3, HBP
- Kid: Matt Shaw (-.087). 0-4
Boyd’s third Billy Goat of the year and first since May 23 (a game the Cubs actually won).
WPA Play of the Game: Isaac Collins batted with the bases loaded and one out in the third, the Cubs up two. He had a terrific at bat, laying off of a couple of really good chase pitches and then hitting a two-run single to tie the game. (.189)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Ian Happ’s single with runners on second and third in the first. Two runs eventually scored when Jacob Misiorowski threw the ball away. (.147)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Nico Hoerner received 132 of 273 votes with Ben Brown (90) the clear second choice.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +28
- Matthew Boyd +20
- Shōta Imanaga +16
- Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
- Nico Hoerner -8
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -18
- Dansby Swanson -23.33
- Seiya Suzuki -27
Michael Busch is an ugly number +9.17 and occupies sixth place.
Up Next: Game two in the series. Colin Rea (8-4, 4.06, 102 IP) is one of the unsung heroes of this Cubs team. He pitched for the Brewers the past two seasons. He’s a bit of a smoke and mirrors guy, so he’s under appreciated. But even with a rough outing last time, he’s 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA over four July starts. He last started against the Brewers in 2020 as a member of the Cubs. That start didn’t go well. He was 7-4 with a 4.16 ERA over 15 home starts (17 appearances) last year.
Quinn Priester (9-2, 3.28, 101⅔ IP) is an unheralded star for the Brewers. He is a first round pick of the Pirates in 2019 out of suburban Chicago. I’m decidedly not versed on players on other teams, but it interests me that he’s already been traded twice in his career and I’ve never heard of the other guy in either trade. He’s 5-0 with a 2.70 ERA over his last seven starts. The Cubs hammered him back on May 2. Let’s hope they can do it again.