The Cubs win 4-1 to take the series from the Yankees.
A terrific bounce back over the weekend for the Cubs. Two strong wins and heading into the break, the Cubs are on a really high note. They also get a full reset. They aren’t in desperate need of the reset. But I’ll go out on a limb and guess at least one or two of the players have some aches, pains, bumps and bruises that aren’t particularly making any of the team’s reporting. Even absent those, they have five of the top 42 players across MLB in plate appearances. There other two regulars (Nico Hoerner and Michael Busch) are 74th and 115th.
Any way you slice it, the Cubs have pushed their regulars hard. For what it’s worth, Dansby Swanson is the old man of the group at 31. So, it’s not like any of them are ancient. Off the top of my head, Nico Hoerner is the only one of them with any kind of injury history and I don’t think he’s particularly fragile. Michael Busch is on pace for about 573 plate appearances and the rest of the group will likely end up over 600. Kyle Tucker is on pace for about 713 plate appearances.
So, they can definitely use some time off. Especially since I can’t imagine any of them raising their hand and asking for extra time. On the other side, Matthew Boyd, for one, has thrown more innings than he has in six years already. He looks like a sturdy guy, but you just never know. All of the starters gain the equivalent of missing a start. That has to be good for them. Everyone should have an opportunity for a full reset.
That’s good. As is becoming increasingly normal, this year’s Brewers team is better than anticipated. They will start the second half hot on the Cubs’ tail. I remain confident that the Cubs win the division and ultimately, I just don’t think the Brewers will be able to keep pace. Just using Fangraphs as a barometer, their most recent projection has the Cubs at 92 wins and the Brewers at 90. I’ll take the over. The Cubs need only to play .500 baseball to reach 90 wins. Just about two and a half weeks until I start following that closely. Your mileage may vary.
Right now, we end where we started. The Cubs had a nice series win heading into the half. This may not be the best Yankee team of recent vintage. But it is a very good one. That same Fangraphs projection has them getting to 90 wins and eking out another division title.
Key Storylines:
- Starting Pitching: I wasn’t great in my college stats class and so nothing on calculating correlation stuck. But I have to imagine there is a fairly high correlation between a good Cubs start and a win. Shōta Imanaga gave them seven dominating innings (he faced only 22 hitters) and a win followed.
- Relief Pitching: Two perfect innings out of arguably the Cubs’ two best relievers this year. Drew Pomeranz and Daniel Palencia each recorded 1-2-3 innings.
- Homer Over Reliance: A pair of them Sunday. They drove in three of the four runs. They did have 10 hits, two of them doubles and the two homers. They drew three walks. Enough production that the Cubs were probably low to middle of the expected scoring.
- Third Base Production: Vidal Brujàn started and went 1-3. Matt Shaw was 0-1 off the bench.
- Dansby Swanson: Batted seventh. 2-4, including a two-run homer. Had one other at bat with two on and no out. He stranded them, but did at least record a line drive out. The Cubs didn’t score those runs and it could have been a big deal. Also, .253/.301/.429 (wRC+ 103) isn’t terrible. I understand the sequencing frustration, but he gets way too much negative publicity.
- Opposing starter: Righty. They didn’t particularly shell him, scoring two over 5⅓ innings. The only lefty used against them, Tim Hill, struck out two lefties (Busch/Tucker) before allowing a double and an RBI-single to Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Seiya continuing to do exactly what his job is and PCA coming through in a big way (even if it was not particularly majestic).
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 118, 28 BF
- Yankees: 150, 40 BF
The Cubs faced just one batter over the minimum, erasing one of the only two runners allowed in the game. They made the Yankee pitching staff work hard. As I said above, the Cubs offense created traffic. On another day, this might have been a much higher output than four. But, on this day, behind a superlative pitching performance, it was good enough.
Three Stars:
- Shōta Imanaga was the star of the day.
- Dansby Swanson was the offensive star.
- Seiya Suzuki with a single, double and run scored nudges out Carson Kelly with a similar line and a runner caught stealing.
Game 96, July 13: Cubs 4, Yankees 1 (57-39)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Shōta Imanaga (.289). 7 IP, 22 BF, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 6 K (W 6-3)
- Hero: Dansby Swanson (.105). 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, R
- Sidekick: Ian Happ (.079). 1-3, BB
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.099). 0-4
- Goat: Vidal Brujan (-.042). 1-3
- Kid: Michael Busch/Matt Shaw (.005). Busch: 1-5, HR, RBI, R; Shaw: 0-1
*Shaw actually reached on a fielder’s choice in his only at bat, no outs were recorded and the play had a positive value.
WPA Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson’s two-run homer with one out and a runner on first in the sixth, broke a 1-1 tie. (.193)
*Yankees Play of the Game: Giancarlo Stanton’s solo homer leading off the bottom of the second tied the game 1-1. (.114)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Matthew Boyd received 211 of 215 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +32
- Matthew Boyd +20
- Shōta Imanaga +16
- Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
- Matt Shaw -12.33
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -17
- Dansby Swanson -23.33
- Seiya Suzuki -26
Up Next: Four days off for the break. Stay tuned for additional content from me over the break. The Cubs return Friday. They’ll start the second half at home against the Red Sox who are 53-45. Some had thought that they might be sellers, but there they are hanging around. They’ve won 10 straight and occupy the second American League Wild Card spot heading into the break. They are in third place, but they are only three games behind the Blue Jays in the division. The last projection by Fangraphs has them winning 85 games and reaching the playoffs 55.2 percent of the time.