A bounce back in the Twin Cities: The Cubs win 8-1.
Was it only yesterday I wrote about how bad a good team could look? The same team that looked out of sorts and overmatched the last two days busted out and crushed the Twins on Thursday afternoon in Minnesota. With the exception of one game in Houston recently, it’s amazing how much this team falls in line with the quality of the starting pitcher’s outing. As good as this team is, that makes me super greedy for adding arms heading into the trade deadline.
As with everything baseball related, there are no guarantees. But man, would I be tempted to try to get the two best rental starters on the trade market and an unheralded right handed hitting corner infielder. The bullpen would be supplemented by starters going to the pen. There would be enough pitching to not overwork the starters down the stretch and leave something in the tank. Maybe once or twice through with six starters late.
Another thought for another day there though. For now, we’ve got to get through these last games and then the All-Star break. That said, we are three days away from José Quintana day. It was July 13, 2017 when the Cubs traded for Quintana. In 2016, the first trade, the Mike Montgomery deal, was a week later. The ever expanding playoffs have made teams slower to sell. But the next significant baseball trade will almost certainly happen within the next week.
Until that action picks up, we cover what’s going on between the lines. It’s easy to be frustrated at times with how things have gone for this team. Also, if we’re being honest, the Cubs are a mere half game behind the best record in the National League and only 3½ games off of the best record in baseball. Finally, a Cubs team that the frustrating part is that they probably could have the best record in baseball but have either let games get away or have come out flat on just too many winnable games.
Also, that happens to every other team. How do you think the Dodgers and their fans are enjoying their off day on a six-game losing streak? To be fair, there are a couple of counter points. First, there’s no President’s Trophy in baseball. There’s no award, save for some home field advantage, for having the regular season best record. Home field advantage is powerful but far from decisive in baseball. Secondly, the Dodgers famously play long stretches in second and third gear. They keep their focus on being strong in October infinitely more than being strong in July.
I bet the Dodgers end up having an extremely active trade season as well. Why? Because that team feels less impressive than it did in some recent years. They have an incredible amount of top end talent, but less role player talent than recent years. Without discounting any of the teams that will eventually play in the playoffs, it does feel like there is a non-miracle path to the World Series.
Key Storylines:
- Starting Pitching: There are always at least one or two guys on the Cubs who I feel are owed an apology by wide swaths of Cub Nation. Colin Rea is one of those. He was widely dismissed when he was signed. He has been written off a few times. He started his 15th game, won his seventh. Crossed the 90 inning mark. He threw seven innings, allowing only three hits and one run. He walked two and struck out five.
- Relief Pitching: Two innings of cleanup work. For Brad Keller, an uneven appearance, but a step back after his uncharacteristically bad last appearance. Daniel Palencia needed work after two straight series with no save opportunities.
- Homer Over Reliance: Two homers accounted for three runs. But five other runs scored. This has been a catch all category for OPS and baserunning info. Four doubles and a walk supplemented eight singles. The offense seemingly pressured the Twins pitchers all day long.
- Third Base Production: Matt Shaw was 0-3 with a sac fly.
- Dansby Swanson: Batted sixth. Single, double, run batted in, run scored. I think there are actually members of Cub Nation who think that Dansby should be cut loose or traded for a bag of balls. Also, he’s a Gold Glove caliber defender with a wRC+ of 105. Not that it’s the same at all, but I always think of Alfonso Soriano who signed a large contract with the Cubs and then was always known for the things he wasn’t rather than the things he was.
- Opposing starter: Another righty. This time, the offense clicked again. One lefty threw, he faced seven batters over two innings and allowed only one hit. But the hit was a long homer for PCA. PCA and Michael Busch making some contributions against lefties will always be a good sign.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 124, 33 BF
- Twins: 144, 42 BF
Evidence here of a fairly aggressive offensive approach for the Cubs. 144 pitches for the Twins isn’t horrendous at all. 42 batters faced is a ton. 15 extra hitters over a perfect game. Scoring eight of them is pretty reasonable for what is almost two runners per inning. Cubs pitching faced six over the minimum. A really effective game for the Cubs. Keller threw 20 pitches and Palencia only 12. They’ll be available, if needed, Friday.
Three Stars:
- I give the nod to Colin Rea. His very strong start led the way.
- If you feel like PCA’s two-homer game stole the show, you have a really defensible position. Especially when one was against a lefty and one reached the 25 homer/25 steal level. I saw it said that this is the first 25/25/70 (RBI) before the All-Star break in MLB history. That’s an amazing number. A whole lot of baseball to be played. Also, PCA is a legitimate MVP candidate.
- Seiya Suzuki matched PCA with three hits. He scored twice.
Game 93, July 10: Cubs 8, Twins 1 (55-38)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Colin Rea (.220). 7 IP, 25 BF, 3 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 5 K (W 7-3)
- Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.183). 3-4, 2 HR, 2B, BB, 3 RBI, 3 R
- Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.116). 2-4, RBI
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Ian Happ (-.057). 0-5
- Goat: Matt Shaw (-.017). 0-3, SF, RBI
- Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.015). 3-5, 2 R
WPA Play of the Game: It was 1-0 with a runner on second and two outs when PCA hit the first of his two homers. (.178)
*Twins Play of the Game: The Twins were down one in the second when Ryan Jeffers led off the second with a double. (.068)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Ryan Brasier 34 of 83 votes
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +32
- Matthew Boyd +17
- Shōta Imanaga +13
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +12.5
- Jameson Taillon/Miguel Amaya +11
- Matt Shaw -12.33
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -17
- Dansby Swanson -25.33
- Seiya Suzuki -26
Up Next: The road trip heads to New York to play the final three pre-All-Star game against the Yankees. The Yankees are 52-41, two games behind the surging Toronto Blue Jays. The Yankees have won four straight.
Chris Flexen (5-0, 0.83, 32⅔ IP) starts a bullpen game in place of the injured Jameson Taillon. It isn’t yet clear if the Cubs will try to slowly stretch Flexen out or how long he might throw in this one. Along with recently recalled Jordan Wicks, they are likely to throw the bulk of the innings.
Carlos Rodon (9-6, 3.30, 111⅔ IP) starts for the Yankees. This will be his 20th start of the year. The 32-year-old lefty is 2-3 with a 4.62 ERA over his last seven starts, so he’s trailing a little bit. His home/road splits are pretty equal. But he’s a fair bit better at night (2.51) than during the day (4.40). Rodon was the 3rd overall pick for the White Sox in the first round way back in 2014. While it feels like the Cubs have faced him over and over through the years, they last faced him in 2023. That game was his first start of the season, coming off an injury, in July. He allowed two runs and took the loss, not completing five innings.
Some tests against lefty pitching ahead of the break. Let’s hope the Cubs can find a way to win a couple of games.