It was merely a .500 month for the team atop the NL Central.
The Cubs will enter July with a homestand against the Cleveland Guardians and St. Louis Cardinals, but the lead they have in the division has shrunk from the lead they had heading into June. They entered June 1 with a three-game lead over the Cardinals, a five and a half game lead over the Brewers and a seven and a half game lead over the Reds. They’ll enter July with all three of those teams having made up ground in June. They now have just a two game lead over Milwaukee, two and a half game lead over St. Louis and a five and a half game lead over Cincinnati. You can see the division tightening in FanGraph’s playoff odds:
FanGraphs
While the Cubs’ playoff odds aren’t that different from the last day of May (83.5 percent) to the last day of June (83.1 percent) everyone else’s odds have gone up, well, except the Pirates, but that’s a post for another day.
The same schedule concerns that existed the last time I took a look at the Cubs record persisted through June. Specifically, the Cubs have been very good against teams who most likely won’t be playing in October and have continued to struggle in series against teams they will need to beat in October. Since June 12 the Cubs have won their series against the Pirates, split two games with the Brewers, split a four-game series with the Cardinals, and dropped two of three against the Astros and Mariners.
Cubs treading water against teams with records over 500 when they play them. April 22nd ( Dodgers) last time winning a series against opponent that was .500 or better when Cubs played them.
— Bruce Levine (@MLBBruceLevine) June 29, 2025
They’ll start their homestand facing off against a sub-.500 Cleveland Guardians team tomorrow, before the Cardinals come to town over the holiday weekend. Then the Cubs will face off against a sub-.500 Twins team and then heading to the Bronx for three games against the AL East-leading Yankees.
It’s a real glass half full, glass half empty situation. On the one hand, the Cubs maintained their lead in the division while their best starter, Shōta Imanaga, was on the injured list. But they still lead the NL Central and have a six-game homestand on the horizon. The Cubs have been better at home this year, with a 25-13 record at the Friendly Confines. On the other hand, the Cubs may need to invest some of their prospect capital in trades if they want to bring in a pitcher who can help the team compete more effectively against the top of the league. That’s a big potential investment in a team that hasn’t won a series against a team who’s over .500 since April.