The Cubs drop the series opener 6-2 to the Reds.
Before Friday, the Cubs had won every series opener that they had played at Wrigley Field. On the last homestand, they finally broke the streak of losing every Sunday. Do you know what those things are? Totally arbitrary outcomes. There is no reason to believe either thing will continue. Consider this a corollary to good teams don’t win close games. They win blowouts. It’s an oh, duh thing.
The Cubs have won a lot of series openers, particularly at Wrigley Field, because they’ve won a huge percentage of their games. If this continues, their splits will be good in every situation. They aren’t in every situation yet. But there is every reason to believe they will be. This is a good team. It isn’t a great team yet. It is a potentially great team. They’ll definitely need another starter, preferably a very good one. They’ll definitely need another reliever. Preferably a very good one.
This team should also continue to get a boost from players getting healthy who aren’t right now. You can’t ever know. This team certainly could suffer more injuries. They almost certainly will. Hopefully, on balance, the team will have net positive balance on injuries. If this team is a net positive on injuries the rest of the year, they’ll win the division and have probably a 50-60 percent chance of having a first round bye. But, if they are net negative on injuries, that’ll crater. Particularly if there are significant injuries to the pitching. There just aren’t enough reinforcements out there to handle more significant injuries. This team needs to be very careful with Shōta Imanaga and Porter Hodge. Those are arms this team desperately needs healthy later this year.
One last thing I want to say. I was once again embarrassed by the people on Cubs social after the game today. I’m never going to tell anyone that they aren’t welcome. I’m never going to be the voice you are looking for if you jump on and off of the bandwagon regularly. My voice here is always going to suggest you not get too high when things are going well or too low when things are going bad. This homestand has been rather flat. The Cubs haven’t played terrific baseball over the last eight days, seven games. Oh and, they are presently 5-2 in that stretch. A few bounces over that stretch and they probably could have won anywhere between three and seven games.
Good teams find ways to win. This team pulled three separate games out of the fire over the last week plus. This Reds team matches up very well with this Cubs team. This could be a long weekend, just like last weekend was. Then the schedule is going to toughen up a bit, again. This next two weeks, things might feel pretty mediocre. I actually suspect not, because this team has answered every single challenge. But, it is well within the range of possibility for the Cubs to move in to a mini-June swoon. Stiffen up. Understand it may happen. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. This team will stack wins in the second half. Keep the faith. Good health is the single most important factor. With that, everything else will take care of itself.
Pitch Counts:
- Reds: 131, 34 BF
- Cubs: 131, 38 BF
Both teams did really well with this. The Reds hit three homers and so similar numbers ended up in dissimilar results. The single most important thing that happened for the Cubs was that their offense roared to life in the eighth and ninth innings and made the Reds use leverage relievers.
On the Cubs side, Colin Rea held the line enough to save the bullpen. Genesis Cabrera had a terrific debut. Chris Flexen continued his excellent work as a Cub. 14⅓ innings, one unearned run. I know he’s almost entirely pitched in low leverage. Well, a lot of low leverage guys get rocked. Flexen has held every game within reach that he’s thrown in.
Three Stars:
- Cabrera gets my top spot. Three strikeouts in five batters faced. Just one walk.
- Michael Busch had a triple in his only at bat. He drove in one and scored one.
- Chris Flexen faced six and retired them all. He gave the Cubs a shot to make this interesting.
Game 57, May 30: Reds 6, Cubs 2 (35-22)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Justin Turner (.038). 1-2
- Hero: Michael Busch (.014). 1-1, 3B, RBI, R
- Sidekick: Chris Flexen/Pete Crow-Armstrong (.005). Flexen: 2 IP, 6 BF, K; PCA: 1-4, 2B
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Colin Rea (-.249). 5⅔ IP, 27 BF, 10 H, 2 BB, 6 ER, 3 K (L 3-2)
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.075). 0-4
- Kid: Kyle Tucker (-.068). 0-3, BB
WPA Play of the Game: Tyler Stephenson homered with a runner on first and one out in the fourth to increase the Reds lead to 4-0. (.137)
*Cubs Play of the Game: With runners at first and second with oone out in the first, Colin Rea got Will Benson to ground into a double play. (.063)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Wednesday’s Winner: Matthew Boyd received 231 of 297 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +20
- Shōta Imanaga/Drew Pomeranz/Miguel Amaya +11
- Jameson Taillon +9
- Michael Busch -7.33
- Seiya Suzuki -9.5
- Ben Brown -14
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Dansby Swanson -17.33
Up Next: Game two of the three game series. One more big challenge for the Cubs. Drew Pomeranz (2-0, 0.00, 12⅔ IP) will be the opener. Drew has been a flat out revelation. If all goes well, Ben Brown (3-3, 6.39, 50⅔ IP) will throw the most innings. Ben has had a pattern of good innings but average to bad performances. This is a different idea to coax more out of Ben.
Nick Lodolo (4-4, 3.39, 63⅔ IP) starts for the Reds. Nick allowed three runs over five innings last week against the Cubs. The Cubs are 8-7 against lefty starters. The results continue to be just all over the place. The results are polarizing. I don’t know what to make of any of it. It feels like the stupidest statement ever that the Cubs are pretty bad when the other team’s starter does well. I mean that’s true of everybody. Without digging, I also feel like the Cubs have waited out a few starters this year and then beat the bullpen after a strong start.
So it’s whatever. The Cubs have answered just about every challenge. I fully expect them to play a competitive game today.