Much has changed in only a few weeks.
It was only about six weeks ago that I posted a “very early look” at the Cubs’ roster, payroll and luxury tax here.
For anyone who thought, at that time, that President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer wasn’t going to do anything this winter, think again.
Since that article appeared here Nov. 6, the Cubs have added the following major league players to their roster: Matthew Boyd, Carson Kelly, Eli Morgan, Cody Poteet, Kyle Tucker and Rule 5 pick Gage Workman.
That’s six new players who will be on the Opening Day roster who weren’t in the Cubs organization when the 2024 season ended. In addition, the Opening Day 2025 roster will probably include Matt Shaw, the leading candidate to be the Opening Day third baseman.
Further, with the trade of Cody Bellinger to the Yankees, that has freed up something north of $20 million for Hoyer to spend on more good players for the 2025 roster. At least, he should be spending that money and not just banking it. That, presumably, was the point of making that deal. Get it done, Jed. The biggest need appears to be pitching, either another starter or to fortify the bullpen.
Here’s the projected Opening Day roster, as it stands now, with salary and luxury tax figures.
As you can see, the Cubs stand quite a bit below the first luxury tax level of $241 million for 2025. Here’s a deeper dive into the numbers from BCBer The Deputy Mayor of Rush Street. The rest of this post is his.
The 2025 Cubs Roster: Jed Hoyer Deals the Last Hand of His Current Contract
TOP LINE: No, the recent moves are not evidence that Jed Hoyer has changed his philosophy. The luxury tax threshold is still a self-imposed cap for the Cubs. But between building up his farm system over the course of the (don’t call it a) rebuild, perhaps he’s getting better at it. Or possibly it just took four years to build up a new crop of top prospects.
With having graduated Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch (not from the Cubs system but still “graduated” to MLB), Ben Brown and Porter Hodge last year, the Cubs system still had eight “Top 100” prospects heading into the ‘24-’25 offseason. With center field and first base covered and seven top prospect position players, it’s simply a case of not having enough spots in the lineup to play them all. Plus, a team can only afford so many growing pains if they mean to contend for at least a division championship.
And by using Cam Smith (and Hayden Wesneski) to help acquire Kyle Tucker, the team has definitely raised expectations. We’ll have to see the follow-up (extension?) to determine if this is just a “save my job” move by Hoyer, or a willingness to pay a Marquee player at market rates.
It can be done, especially with a productive farm system providing pre-arb talent on a regular basis. As for the current top prospects, I’m buying the talk and penciling Matt Shaw in to crack the roster and start at third base. For the remaining six (Caissie, Horton, Ballesteros, Triantos, Alcantara, Rojas) it’s on Hoyer to anticipate his needs, and choose the right chips to pull off the table (hold ‘em), and deal off other chips while they have strong value (fold ‘em).
And then keep producing new prospects to be able to meet future needs, both in the Cub lineup and for trading purposes…Here’s what’s happened since our last mini-update, at the start of the Winter Meetings a bit over a week ago:
● The Cubs selected infielder Gage Workman in the major league portion of the Rule 5 Draft.
● They traded Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith to Houston for Kyle Tucker
● They consummated a deal with catcher Carson Kelly, and made the signing official.
● Tuesday afternoon, they traded Cody Bellinger and some cash to the Yankees for pre-arb swingman Cody Poteet
● And Tuesday evening, they traded catcher Matt Thaiss to the White Sox for cash considerations
● The 40-man roster now stands at 39.
Current Player Payroll:
(Note, these figures are for each player’s “cap hit,” the charge against the Cubs’ luxury tax spending level. The base luxury tax threshold is $241,000,000 for the 2024 season.)
Players with Guaranteed Contracts (8+1):
Swanson $25,285,714
Happ $20,333,333
Suzuki $17,000,000
Taillon $17,000,000
Boyd $14,500,000
Imanaga $13,250,000
Hoerner $11,666,667
Kelly $5,750,000
Bellinger $2,500,000 (cash sent to Yankees, $2.5 million in each of ‘25 and ‘26)
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TOTAL $127,285,714
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Arbitration Players (6, using MLBTR’s estimates for players whose contracts are unsettled/unknown at this time):
Tucker $15,800,000 – (0 options left)
Steele $6,400,000 – (0)
Pearson $1,400,000 – (1)
Merryweather $1,225,000 – (0) SIGNED
Morgan $1,000,000 – (1)
Thompson $1,000,000 [est.] – (0) SIGNED
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TOTAL $26,825,000
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(Note: The MLB minimum salary for 2024 rises to $760,000.)
Pre-Arb Players expected to make the 26-man roster (12):
Amaya $780,000 – (0 options left)
Assad $770,000 – (2)
Brown $762,000 – (2)
Busch $764,000 – (2)
Canario $761,000 – (0)
Crow-Armstrong $764,000 – (2)
Hodge $762,000 – (2)
Mastrobuoni $768,000 – (1)
Miller $763,000 – (0)
Poteet $770,000 – (2)
Shaw $760,000 – (3 – will need to be added to the 40-man roster)
Workman $760,000 – (3* – as a Rule 5 selectee, the Cubs options are limited in 2025)
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TOTAL $9,184,000
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Pre-Arb Players expected to start in the minors (13):
Alcantara – (2 options left)
Arias – (2)
Caissie – (3)
Cowles – (3)
Hollowell – (2)
Kilian – (1)
Little – (2)
Mervis – (1)
Neely – (2)
Roberts – (2)
Vázquez – (2)
Wicks – (3)
Zastryzny – (0, meaning he will need to pitch his way onto the 26-man roster in ST.)
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Other Expenses:
40-man roster players in minors $2,600,000
Pension payments & sundry expenses $17,500,000
Cubs’ share of pre-arb bonus pool $1,666,667
(Reserve withheld for trades/buffer) ¹ $5,000,000
(Reserve for 60-day IL replacements) ² $3,040,000
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TOTAL $29,806,667
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GRAND TOTAL FOR CAP PURPOSES $193,101,381
LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD $241,000,000
CUBS STAND UNDER THE TAX BY $47,898,619
¹- Optional expense, but some amount figures to be held back from wherever Tom Ricketts sets the baseball budget.
² – Estimating four seasons’ worth of MLB minimum players for eight 60-Day IL stints of indeterminate length.
ADJUSTED FOR ACTUAL PAYROLL EXPENDITURES IN 2025
GRAND TOTAL IN CASH OUTLAY $200,065,667
(This figure includes adding $6,964,286 in adjustments between contract payouts and cap valuations, plus contract buyouts for Drew Smyly and David Bote.)
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Current Projected Roster – Again, there are currently 39 players on the 40-man roster.
OF (5): Happ – PCA – Tucker – Suzuki – Canario
IF (6): (Shaw) – Swanson – Hoerner – Busch – Mastrobuoni – Workman (or Vázquez)
C (2): Amaya – Kelly
SP (5): Imanaga – Taillon – Steele – Assad – Boyd
RP (8): Hodge – Miller – Brown – Pearson – Morgan – Poteet – Thompson – Merryweather
(Note: All relievers on this list can ride the Shuttle in 2025 except Miller, Thompson, and Merryweather.)
40-man position players in minors (4) – Kevin Alcantara, Owen Caissie, Ben Cowles, Matt Mervis
40-man pitchers in minors (9) – Michael Arias, Gavin Hollowell, Caleb Kilian, Luke Little, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts, Jordan Wicks, Rob Zastryzny
Notable non-roster players in minors: Moises Ballesteros, James Triantos, Cade Horton, (Matt Shaw).
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BOTTOM LINE:
In trying to boost an 82-84 win projection, swapping Tucker for Bellinger might improve the team by 3 wins. A positive result from a fifth starter (1-2 WAR?) could mean another two or three games over what the Cubs got from Kyle Hendricks last season. Young players like PCA, Busch and Amaya certainly have some upside to improve on their 2024 seasons, but you can’t just expect gains without some unexpected regressions to break out.
To that end the team is rumored to be working on adding one more starting pitcher. It would also be helpful to improve the bench, and preferably find someone who can take over at third base for a period, should Shaw not hit The Show charging (and maybe cover for Nico if he’s not ready to begin the season.) I wouldn’t mind seeing one solid, veteran late-inning reliever to bolster the bullpen, and be insurance should Porter Hodge need help with the endgame.